Kentucky is the capital of thoroughbred racehorse breeding for good reason. Breeders in Kentucky enjoy having the best and largest selection of sires to chose from, access to some of the best land to raise horses in the world and ready access to the best racehorse sales in the world. For these reasons most major breeders have set up headquarters in the bluegrass state and have invested millions of dollars in bloodstock and infrastructure.

Through the years many states have developed important regional breeding programs to attract investment in their industry. Many of these programs offer incentives to stallion owners and breeders that provide income every time a horse they bred runs well in a race within that state. Therefore breeders are not completely dependent on the price a horse fetches in the auction ring to make a profit but may continue to receive income throughout a horse’s career.

There are other benefits for breeders who breed in regional programs. First, the horses that they breed are eligible to race in softer restricted races which usually carry high purses. These races provide breeders with greater opportunities for their stock to make money throughout their careers which translates to higher income for the breeder. Second, state bred restricted stakes races also increase the chances that a given foal will become a stakes horse which increases the value of their sires and dams. Third, regional breeders may be able to negotiate cheaper fees for Kentucky stallions. Some farms are now even offering free breeding rights in exchange for being listed as a co-breeder of the resulting foal and thus becoming eligible to receive the state bred incentives.

During the times when auction markets were strong, these additional incentives were not particularly attractive to many national breeders. They were content to breed the best they had to the best they could afford and hope that the auction market would reward them for their efforts. However, in a severely declining auction market these breeders would be wise to revise their strategy and look to regional markets to improve their odds of making money in the long run.

Breeding in regional markets would reduce their cost of production since they would be able to negotiate cheaper stud fees and increase the amount of money they can get out of the resulting foals since they would no longer be dependent on making a good sale in the auction ring.

In this economic downturn it is very important for breeders to select stallions very carefully. One of the best places to invest, if you are breeding to sell, is to invest in a first year stallion. However, breeders must be very selective if they want to optimize the chances that the resulting foal will be profitable in the sale ring. In addition, breeders should also select a sire that will give them the best possibilities that the resulting foal will be able to run since there is a probability that the breeder may end up owning the foal if the reserve is not met by the market.

With this in mind we have the following recommendations to make to breeders regarding this crop’s freshman sires:

Under $10,000:

Indygo Shiner (A.P. Indy) ($7,500): He absolutely represents the best value of any new stallion and perhaps of any stallion offered. He has an impeccable pedigree being by AP Indy out of a full sister to Toussaud, one of the best broodmares of recent history and dam of the likes of Empire Maker and Chester House. In addition, he is a superb looking individual from a physical standpoint able to sire very marketable and extraordinary looking foals.

He has already covered a couple of southern hemisphere seasons. With those two crops he managed to sire the Argentine Derby and the Argentine Oaks winner in the same year. His son, Tecla Shiner, captured the Nacional-Argentine Derby (Arg-I), and his daughter, Miss March, won the Seleccion-Argentine Oaks (Arg-I) and another of his sons Mi Amiguito also won the Argentine 2,000 Guineas. This is no small feat by any measure.

I don’t think there is a better value being offered anywhere and I cannot stress enough the quality of his progeny in Argentina. He has a pedigree that is well suited to the American market and at I think that this horse will very quickly climb in stud fee value in the coming years.

Under $25,000

First Defense (Unbridled Song) ($17,500): By Unbridled Song and out of the incredibly racer Honest Lady by Seattle Slew, First Defense is looking like a horse that is being offered for fantastic value. His female family includes the likes of Empire Maker and Chesterhouse since Honest Lady is also by the great broodmare Toussaud.
He was a G1 winner at 7 furlongs, probably his most effective distance, he possessed great speed and power and good physical qualities.

Seeking the Dia (Storm Cat) ($10,000): Another top value sire by Vinery. Seeking the Dia was very much the real deal on the racetrack. He banked over $5 Million dollars and won some of Japan’s most prestigious dirt races, he also placed second twice in the Japan Cup Dirt G1. He comes from a solid female family; he is by G1 Winner Seeking the Pearl. When you look at horses like Bluegrass Cat who command a stud fee of $40,000. Here is another son of Storm Cat who was just as good, if not better on the racetrack for a fraction of the cost.

J Be K (Silver Deputy) ($10,000): From the same sire that gave us the champion freshman sire Posse. J be K began his career in impressive fashion setting a track record at Saratoga at 2, for that alone he is worth the price. He still returned the following year to win 3 graded stakes at 6 and 7 furlongs. A top prospect with plenty of upside if you can get over his unfortunate name.

Over $25,000

Henry the Navigator (Kingmambo)($65,000): The English 2,000 Guiness winner trained on very well to win 4 consecutive Group 1 events and finishing second in the Breeders Cup Classic. He is impeccably bred being by Kingmambo out of the Saddlers Wells mare, Sequoyah. This Great physical specimen has very little down side at this price. Consider that Giant’s Causeway, who has similar credentials, stood for $125,000 in his first season.

Curlin (Smart Strike)($75,000): Curlin was really: the horse of the world. He is a much more recognized name on an international scale than Big Brown and was a sounder more durable individual, which is why we are picking him here instead of that one. He has a more attractive pedigree and I think that he is a much better physical individual. Considering that over the last few years the top horses have stood for over $100,000 including Ghostzapper at $200,000. Curlin at $75,000 definitely seems like a real bargain for the right type of mare. There is a lot of upside for him at this price and we believe that a high percentage of his foals will be profitable for breeders.

Its sale season again! It has been a very unpredictable year that has so far shown mixed results for yearling sales. For example, at the FT Saratoga Select the market was up slightly but FT KY JUL saw the market decline substantially (over 10%).

The high volatility that has been present in past sales probably means that there will be plenty of bargains to be had in the upcoming king of sales: The Keeneland September Yearling Sale. This will be especially true of the middle market.

We anticipate the top of the market to be healthy, although buyers will be much more selective in determining what constitutes the top. This will open up the access to very good pedigrees for buyers in the high-middle level. These types of buyers should be doing their homework in books one and two so that when the opportunity presents itself they can take advantage of it.

I also anticipate the middle market to show a reasonable but not drastic correction when compared to last year; this is based on the fact that pinhookers did reasonably well and will come back with money to invest. In addition, the new tax rules will also allow buyers to reach a little deeper into their pockets for the prospects that they like.

In addition, there will be a great deal of volatility within that middle group, as purchasers that depend on the stock market and/or receive bonus based compensation tighten their spending due to uncertainty in the market place.

Smart buyers should be patient and look for bargains that will be more readily available than in the past.

We will now examine the profiles of some stallions that may offer value for yearling buyers at this sale:

High End Sires:

Pulpit (AP Indy): This guy does well at the racetrack, his average of $100,000 is very low for the bang that he can deliver (AEI 2.12). With some of his sons retiring to stud, this beautiful looking stallion is a prime candidate to skyrocket in price in the near future.

Rahy (Blushing Groom): Perennially undervalued. His average of $66,000 is less than half of his current stud fee. He has an AEI of 2.41. He has 15 selling and everyone of them should be worth a look for bargain hunters.

Silver Deputy (Deputy Minister): is AEI is a strong 2.00 but his average of only $62,500 is very low. Pinhookers take note that his average for 2yo is $190,000. A healthy difference for those wanting to make a quick profit.

Cozene (Caro): Another of the great turf sires he can give you a 2.35 AEI with a very cheap $60,000 average. Probably the best value among the old-timers.

Theatrical (Nureyev): Like Rahy he boasts a 2.40 AEI but his sale figure of $70,000 is very low. For the turf enthusiast this stallion can deliver very high quality for a very good price.

The rest:

Arch (Kris S.): Has come a long way but we believe that he still has plenty of upside even at the $50,000 he average last year. He has been able to get an AEI of 1.95 but the yearlings he is selling today are out of much better mares.

City Zip (Carson City): moved from New York to Kentucky after showing plenty of potential. His $16,073 average will certainly rise but probably not enough to erase the value that he offers (1.81 AEI)

Dehere (Deputy Minister): Just getting back State side will offer his 28 yearlings since getting back. Many may have forgotten how good he is. (AEI 1.81)

Exchange Rate (Danzig): How much does this guy have to do to be appreciated? With an AEI of 1.98 and an average last year of $23,000 he is an absolute steal.

Macho Uno (Holy Bull): Is quickly demonstrating that he belongs in the upper echelon with an AEI of 2.38 and an average of only $20,000 he is probably the best value of the bunch.

Pleasant Tap (Pleasant Colony): They don’t come more consistent than this guy with an average of just $30,000 he always delivers (AEI 1.94).

Point Given (Thunder Gulch): He got a bad reputation with his first two year-olds and was labeled a flop. The two-year olds went on to run big but the label stuck and now his average is just $22,000 but his AEI is an incredible 2.16!

Proud Citizen (Gone West): will probably go up in value due to his recent success at the racetrack but at $35,000 he will still be buyable.

Victory Gallop (Cryptoclearance): Remember him? Easy to forget but as consistent as they come with an average of $10,000 he will surely be one of the best buys out there.

But the very best value you will find in the sale is:

Bad Nicks for Young (but not freshman) Stallions: Nicks are quickly becoming the end all be all for Breeders. Agents may be afraid to purchase a ‘bad’ nick for a client and be branded as someone who does not know what they are doing. However, regardless of whether you ‘believe’ in them of not (and I certainly don’t) most people will agree that the Nicks awarded to young stallions based on what their sires have done are worthless. So take out your guides and look for those Ds and Fs on nicks for young stallions (I would do it for every stallion) odds are that the misguided rating will scare some prospective purchasers giving plenty of value.

I have witnessed great horses that have tried and failed to become the next Triple Crown winner; horses like Smarty Jones, Funny Side, Charismatic, Real Quiet and Silver Charm.

With each of these horses there was always a general sense of excitement going into the Belmont and a general hope that they would become the 12th Triple Crown winner. Those horses were good; they were challenged and they were surrounded by great connections. This year that excitement is generally lacking; many people harbor a deep buried hope for Big Brown to fail. That hope is based on many factors that have affected Big Brown’s popularity:

Eight Bells’s Breakdown: The fact that Eight Bells became the first horse ever to break down at the Kentucky Derby drew most of the media and public attention away from Big Brown and his victory and turned it against the sport itself.

His Trainer: He is trained by Richard Dutrow Jr., a confessed drug and gambling addict with a long history of suspensions and drug infractions that has only served to cast a deep shadow of doubt over Big Brown’s accomplishments.

The Weak Opposition: He has faced a very mediocre group of three year-olds - which has many doubting whether he deserves to earn a title that has eluded so many great horses that met better foes.

In fact, the group that he has faced is so bad that only one of his rivals has managed to run a triple digit Beyer speed figure against him in a Triple Crown race – pathetic! He ran an average Beyer in the Derby of 109 but then he posted the second slowest winning Beyer ever for the Preakness – about 5 lengths slower than the average.

And the group does not seem to be getting any tougher for the Belmont. The only worthwhile addition seems to be Casino Drive, a talented colt without any type of foundation who will be making only his third lifetime start in the grueling mile and a half race - Hardly the recipe for an upset!

His Owners: A new and almost faceless, ambitious, Wall Street type hedge fund who would like to see the sport transformed and have horses become nothing more than a line item in someone’s earnings report.

They would like to have investors, preferably institutional investors, put up tens of millions of dollars into a fund that buys and sells racehorses. The investors would not own or identify with any particular horse but would only be advised of their profits, or most likely their losses.

Under their plan horses would not be owned by people that care about their health and welfare but rather by people whose sole aim it to exploit them for profit. This is a monstrous idea! It takes away any incentive to look out for long term interest of the horse.

His Career Span or Lack Thereof: There is absolutely no chance that Big Brown will run as a four year-old especially considering his ownership group who cares about nothing but dollars and cents.

It is also very unlikely that he will ever meet older foes or even race past the Belmont because the risk of defeat may diminish his value. This horse is headed to retirement as soon as the slightest plausible excuse presents itself (read bruised feet).

His Name: Lets face it when compared to the likes of Secretariat, Citation and Affirmed; Big Brown just has a dumb name.

At the end of the day, Big Brown has nothing going for him other than Big Brown. He is a very good horse and nothing that I have described so far is Big Brown’s fault.

He, as a racehorse, has done nothing wrong on or off the track. He has met every challenge thrown at him, including winning in his first few starts the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby from a difficult outside post while running wide on both turns. He won the Preakness with great ease and was not at all extended at the finish – he did what he needed to do to stay fresh for the Belmont. And come June 7, he most likely will destroy yet another severely overmatched field and be crowned the 12th Triple Crown winner.

The question is how would you feel about that?

Owner Rick Porter raised more than a few eyebrows when he announced that Eight Bells, a probable favorite for the Kentucky Oaks, may actually run in the Derby. The outrage surrounding the decision had nothing to do with running a filly in the premier horse race in America but rather on the concern that Eight Bells would be entered only to end up running in the Oaks.

Under current rules, only 20 horses can be entered for the Derby. However, nothing prohibits an owner from entering a filly in both the Derby and the Oaks. The problem is that if the filly ends up running in the Oaks, she will have denied another legitimate contender a place in the Derby.

Rick Porter has been unapologetic about his decision stating that in his view there is nothing “illegal or unsportsmanlike” about entering the filly in both races; he notes that “this is a business and not just a sport.” His decision will be controversial only if Eight Bells draws a bad post position for the Derby and scratches.

What will not be controversial is the ability of this filly to compete with the best colts of her generation. Her top Beyer speed figure, a 99, makes her on paper a strong contender. It is also very positive that she has already shown a liking for the dirt and with nine lifetime starts, four of those in the current year, Eight Bells is already a very experienced performer.

One issue against may be that only three fillies have ever managed to win the Derby. Regret in 1915, Genuine Risk in 1980 and Winning Colors in 1988. However, only 38 fillies have ever raced in the Derby, the latest being Excellent Meeting who finished fifth and Three Ring who finished 19th in 1999.

Three out of 38 is not a bad statistic for the Derby. Fillies are winning at a healthy rate of 8%; which means that according to the numbers; theoretically, a filly has a better chance of winning the race than a horse trained by Todd Pletcher who is 0 for 19!

In conclusion, Eight Bells is a strong contender especially considering all the question marks surrounding much of the field and as Rags to Riches proved last year, the girls can beat the boys even at the top of the sport.

On Friday, I had the pleasure of seeing the movie The First Saturday in May. I had been a little reluctant to go because of the mixed reviews it received. However, Alan from Left at the Gate pushed me in favor of going with his review of the movie.

The movie is playing at Cinema Village in New York until Thursday May 1, as well as in select theaters across the country.

The documentary follows six horses, including Barbaro, on the road to the Derby. Throughout this journey, the movie captures beautifully the equine and human stories behind the greatest race in America.

All of the six very different trainers that are profiled talk about what it would mean to them to make it to the Derby. Some of them have waited twenty years or more to make it to the big race. This sets up the drama for the horses’ subsequent races, as each tries to get enough earnings to make the field.

The human stories are all powerful. From Frank Amonte, an assistant trainer with years in the business that finally gets a shot with a top prospect to Michael Matz who went from Olympian medalist to Derby winner. We meet the trainers, their families and the staff who day in and day out take care of these magnificent animals.

In a deeper level the movie captures the power and mystique of the Derby. Its ability shape the dreams and aspirations of everyone associated with the sport and the overwhelming odds that any trainer and owner face of actually getting there.

But perhaps the greatest achievement of the directors was to pick, very early on, five horses that actually made the derby, all of whom had a great chance of winning. From Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron to Belmont hero Jazil, the movie captures most of the horses that turned out to be the favorites for what Barclay Tagg called the most competitive Derby field he had ever seen. And of course, there is Barbaro, the eventual winner by one of the largest margins in history.

The movie would have been fantastic had it ended there but the directors did go on to tackle the issue of Barbaro’s tragic accident in the Preakness – albeit very tastefully. Making the ending seem like patch work, an epilogue put together last minute to accommodate the tragic event.

The movie itself is designed to build up to only one thing – the Derby. So whatever comes after that is not only anticlimactic, it is not supported by anything in the plot. It leaves the viewer feeling lost and a little depressed.

I spoke with one of the Hennegan brothers after the film and asked him about the ending. He confirmed that when they set off to do the project they had only intended to film up to the Derby but when Barbaro won so impressively, they decided to keep shooting in case they had a Triple Crown winner in their hands.

After filming, they were not sure how to end it but they were completely surprised by audiences when they screened the film. He told me “you would be surprised how many people don’t know what happened to Barbaro. Some think he is still alive, others think he got hurt in the Derby itself.”

The Hennegan brothers see this film not just as a simple documentary but also as a time capsule, designed to capture the reality of that particular Derby. They were very fortunate to share in the rise of Barbaro to the highest place in thoroughbred history; so they felt responsible to also speak about his tragedy. Especially, when they found that many people just don’t know what happened. They want people to know and they want people to care. In achieving this, the ending of the movie is successful.

The documentary is a powerful film, about people and horses. The stories are heartwarming, sometimes funny, sometimes sad, but always engaging. We share in the dreams and disappointments of those involved as they keep fighting for their chance, their day in the Derby. We are taken through a great emotional ride, and in the process we get a close look at what makes the Derby one of the bet races in the world.

It is a film that no horse enthusiast should miss! Especially, not on Derby week!

The Kentucky Derby is only a few weeks away and press coverage of each contender is already at full blast. During the next few weeks we will hear about every aspect of the training, health, eating habits, right down to the choice of shoes of each of the potential participants.

It is easy to get carried away by all the commentary and the hype and lose sight of the elements that are most important in sorting out the contenders from the pretenders.

Today, I want to discuss one of the factors that will receive much of the attention from both turf writers and fans -Pedigree.

How important is an individual horse’s pedigree in evaluating potential Derby success?

Ever since Leon Rasmussen wrote in the early 80s that “no Kentucky Derby winner since 1929 had a Dosage Index higher than 4.00” handicappers and journalist have analyzed the pedigrees of Derby contenders almost obsessively.

The Dosage Index classifies horse pedigrees by type and assigns a number that reflects the ability that a horse has to compete at a specific distance - the lower the number, the greater the aptitude to compete at classic distances.

The idea that a number derived from pedigree alone could single handedly eliminate almost half the field from contention in the Derby was simple and alluring. And it worked!

It worked, that is, until in 1991 when a horse by the name of Strike the Gold won the Derby despite the fact that his Dosage Index was 9.00. His win was followed by wins by Real Quiet, Charismatic and Giacomo all of whom had Dosages in the higher than 4.00. These results put an end to Dosage as a theory for predicting Derby winners.

However, the idea that pedigree can be used to somehow gain an edge in selecting Derby winners did not die with Dosage. The race is now on to find the next magic number, explanation, or gimmick that will give a handicapper an edge in predicting Derby success.
Pedigree, as a general matter, can only give us the probability that a particular horse will have certain characteristics. The law of genetics is random in selecting traits that will be handed down to through the generations.

Therefore, we often see horses that display very different characteristics from the ones we expect to see by looking at their pedigree. For instance, a sprinter type who is able to succeed in the classics (Smarty Jones) or a turf horse that really likes dirt racing (Cigar).
For me, although a hard-core Pedigree enthusiast, Pedigree is not very important in handicapping this race. I believe that the usefulness of Pedigree is inversely proportional to the amount of additional information available on a given horse.

Pedigree is most important when planning a mating because there is no information available on the prospective foal (except of course the physical characteristics of the parents which should be taken into account).

At the yearling sales, pedigree is still crucial but it loses some of its importance because we have plenty of information on the build, conformation and temperament of the foal in question.

Finally, by the time a horse is ready to run, pedigree may still shed some light on certain factors like the ability of a foal to mature early or her preference for a specific surface but as soon as the gates open the usefulness of pedigree as a predictor of success is diminished even further.

The only relevant use of bloodlines in this Derby may be to try to determine which of the horses that have been successful in Polytrack may actually take to the dirt surface of Churchill downs – a surface they have never tried. But even here other factors such as workouts prior to the race may be much more telling.

We have too much information on Derby entrants to focus on bloodlines. Looking at genetics to predict Derby success is like using a meat cleaver to perform a fine surgery, it’s blunt and unnecessary.

Today we will discuss stallions standing between $20,000 and $49,999 and we will try to identify which stallions offer the best value and which offer the worst value for breeders.

The group is joined by former star Fusaichi Pegasus, a once thriving Coolmore Sire that los 40% of his value and is standing for $45,000. The group has been pretty steady in terms of their fees and offers some very good value in the form of older proven sires and some well placed younger sires.

Best Values

Exchange Rate ($25,000) A fee increase of 150% should not deter anyone from breeding to this stallion, he is a young proven sire with strong numbers and offers a unique opportunity for breeders at this price range. His AEI of 2.26 is extremely strong. He also produces 8.6% stake winners from foals which is huge for modern standards. His yearling median lags a little but his sales numbers should improve dramatically given the performance of his horses at the track.

Cozzene ($35,000) Has been standing now for a couple of seasons for this low fee. He has an Average Earning Index of 2.39 and produces 8.9% stakes winners from foals both figures are easily the highest for any stallion at this price level, these numbers are even attractive at the $50,000-$99,000 bracket. His yearling median is only $60,000 which still make him a commercially viable prospect but his real value will be for those who breed to race. Hard to find a better value in any price range.

Theatrical ($40,000) Another sire with big numbers that seems to be punished because of his age. He has a 2.43 AEI and 7.9% stakes winners from foals. His median yearling median of $70,000 makes him a contender for the commercial breeder but as with Cozzene it is the breeders who breed to race that will find this offer most attractive.

After Market ($30,000) Very well priced sire offers those who want to take a chance on a first year sire very good value. He is an incredible physical specimen who was effective at middle distances on the grass at every level. He is impeccably bred being out of G1 winner Tranquility Lake by Rahy so he has the same cross as Giant’s Causeway. He retired with 8 wins from 13 starts and his yearling should be well sought after at the sales since he will appeal to both domestic and foreign buyers. In addition, if he passes on just a fraction of his looks, his yearlings have the potential of selling well into the six figures.

Worst Values

Aptitude ($20,000) Has not been performing well and this fee just seems too high for a sire with his numbers. He only has a 1.34 AEI and produces a pathetically low 1.8% stakes winners from foals. From a commercial standpoint his $25,500 yearling median does not warrant anything close to his fee.

Sky Messa ($30,000) Danger signs of a major flop are flashing. Sky Messa had a disastrous year with his two-year old runners and although I like to give stallions a couple of crops before judging, his numbers are just too bleak to warrant any breeder taking the plunge at this fee level. AEI of only 0.57, a pitiful 9% winners from foals and no stake winners to speak of make him a really bad gamble at this stage. If you like him, wait a year or two to get a better view of his ability and his fee is almost certain to fall.

Today we will discuss stallions standing between $50,000 and $99,999 and we will try to identify which stallions offer the best value and which offer the worst value for breeders.

This year, overall stud fees are down 12% for the group when compared to 2006. The average decline in yearling average was only 5% compared to last year. This is good news for breeders at this price range.

The group is joined by former six figure all stars Gone West, El Prado and Elusive Quality. The group has been pretty steady in terms of their fees as most horses return for the same fee as last year. They did lose one member in Fusaichi Pegasus whose fee was dropped by a huge 40% to $45,000.

Best Values

El Prado ($75,000) With a 40% fee reduction, El Prado may finally offer value and quality to breeders. He has an Average Earning Index of 2.14, the second highest of the group after Rahy, and has 8.4% stakes winners from foals. His yearling median of $190,000 also makes him very attractive at this price range.

Gone West ($85,000) has also been reduced from $125,000, he is a proven sire of sires and offers a unique opportunity to breeders at this price range. He still has a strong demand at the sale for his yearlings with a median of $210,000. He produces 8.6% stake winners from foals.

Elusive Quality ($75,000) Another sire with a big fee reduction (25%) that screams value for breeders. He has a 2.11 AEI and 6% stakes winners from foals. His median yearling median of $205,000 makes him a strong contender for the commercial breeder.

Worst Values

Johannesburg ($65,000) does produce some useful horses but his numbers are not that good. His AEI of 1.36 is pathetically low for a stallion in this range (it’s lower than for many stallions in the $5,000 range) and his 4.3% stakes winners from foals Is only marginally acceptable. He still has plenty of room for improvement as he has sired some good horses but I would not be surprised to see him in the $30,000 range soon. Especially given the way that Coolmore discounts its stallions. His yearling median of only $95,000 make him hard to swallow on the commercial front.

It is that time of the year when we evaluate the best and worst values in the stallion market. Today we will discuss stallions standing above $100,000 and we will try to identify which of them offer the best and the worst value for breeders.

This year was a tough year for this group; overall stud fees are down 2% for the group when compared to 2006; mostly due to the drastic reduction of Storm Cat’s fee. At the sales this group of sires also saw their yearling average decline for the third straight year; they suffered a 15% drop compared to 2006. This is not good news for breeders trying to breed to the top echelon of horses since stud fees are declining at a slower rate than average prices thus reducing the profitability for breeders.

However, Storm Cat was not the only sire who saw his stud fee reduced. Unbridled’s Song’s fee was reduced by $50,000, Forestry by $25,000 and Giant’s Causeway and Kingmambo previously standing for a private amount are also standing for less than their last advertised fee.

In addition, other stallions that were once members of this selective group have fallen out of this very exclusive club. They include El Prado, Elusive Quality and Gone West. On the other end of the spectrum two more stallions have joined the six figure sires, they are Smart Strike and Street Cry.

Best Values

A.P. Indy ($300,000) A.P. Indy has been an ultra consistent sire; his yearling median of $675,000 make him the most attractive sire in this price range from a commercial standpoint. He has a 3.22 Average Earning Index and produces a great 12.9% stakes winners from foals. Most important of all he is quickly cementing his reputation as an important sire of sires, a most for a stallion in this price range.

Storm Cat ($300,000) Yes his yearling median was off this year for the first time in a while; his median was ‘only’ $350,000. Yet the 40% reduction in stud fee make him very attractive. He has a 3.41 AEI and produces 13.3% stakes winners from foals. He is also the best sire of sires of any active sire.

Worst Values

Mr. Greeley ($125,000) We thought he was a bad value last year when he stood at $75,000. Unbelievably his fee is increased by 67% for this year. His yearling median does not make him attractive at $150,000 although he is very capable of hitting homeruns in the sales ring. At the track, he has been able to sire top runners especially in Europe where he boasts an outstanding filly in Finsceal Beo. Be that as it may, his AEI of 1.53 is what I would expect to see in the $15,000-$25,000 stud fee range and his 5.1% stakes winners from foals is the lowest percentage for any stallion standing for more than six figures. In conclusion he is one of the worst values in any category!