The first two days of Keeneland are over and the results of the select portion of the sale are mixed. On the one hand, the gross and average number suffered significant set backs; on the other, the median remained relatively flat compared to last year’s numbers. What does that mean for the market?

No Fireworks

The first thing that the numbers indicate is that there was an important slowdown in the very top of the market. This year there were no Green Monkeys and no $10 million horses. The sale topper was a $3.7 Million purchase; a colt by Unbridled’s Song purchased by Demi O’Byrne. This is not a cheap purchase, but it was the cheapest sale topper since 2002 and compared to last year when 6 horses were sold for more than $4 million, it is easy to see where the reduction in average and gross came from.

Fueling the drop in gross was the fact that John Ferguson only spent a total of $16,230,000 on 15 horses this year. This drop of activity by him is a major force behind the drop in average. It was also interesting to note that the Darley v. Coolmore rivalry, responsible for last year’s $11.7 Million sale topper and the $16 Million world record ‘The Green Monkey’, did not play out at all during the sale.

Could it be that the rivalry is over? Probably not, Darley still did not purchase any yearlings by Coolmore stallions. In fact the only clash between the two clans came for a son of Dynaformer a stallion that neither of them stands.

The good news at the top comes from the fact that there were 30 individuals that sold for $1 million or more. That is the same number as last year signifying that although the very top may be hurting the middle top is still very healthy. Also of note is the fact that Geoffrey Russel stated that this year there were more individual buyers willing to purchase the $1 million plus yearlings.

End of the Storm Cat Era?

Another interesting feature of the sale is that Storm Cat did not perform as expected with his yearlings. The perennially leading sire by average and median ranked only fifth this year behind such horses as Dynaformer, A.P. Indy, Distorted Humor and Unbridled’s Song. It is interesting to note that none of the top 7 sires stand at Coolmore or Darley.

Of the first crop sires with horses to sell in book 1 none of them were among the top 20 sires by average. A stark contrast to last year when 3 of them Vindication, Mineshaft and Empire Maker did very well . The best freshman sire was Speightstown who did exceeded expectations in this part of the sale.

Strong in the Middle

The middle marked remained very strong. The median was $300,000 which matched last year’s all time record median. It seems clear that there are plenty of buyers that are willing to spend serious money for good horses but not many of them are willing to spend the ridiculous amounts that have been spent by Coolmore and Darley in recent years. This is good news for breeders that make up the majority of the sale; unless, of course, they had one of the very few standouts of the sale.

The Engine Roars

The bad news for book 2 is that the big jets have left the airport. The sale will now have to do without its best buyers as the Darley team heads home. They will certain leave John Ferguson behind to look at yearlings but it is clear that their spending will be very curtailed in the days to come. Last year they did not leave until Thursday so expect a correction in the next book.

As the select portion of the sale gets on its way, first year sires will test the Keeneland market for the first time. Most of them have already been showcased at Fasig-Tipton or other sales and have begun to offer clues on how the market will receive them. But the real test will come at Keeneland. The fact that each sire will offer a large number of yearlings means that full cross section of their offspring will be sold which will give us a good idea of how the market is receiving them. Although there are no real Vindications, Empire Makers or Mineshafts this year among the first year sire crop with the potential to sell multi million dollar yearlings (with the possible exception of Smarty Jones). The crop does have depth to it and there will be something for everyone among these stallions.

Among the stallions that have sold yearlings in past sales below are some of the most anticipated:

Smarty Jones (Elusive Quality): The cream of this crop Smarty Jones captured the imagination of the nation as a racehorse. The Kentucky Derby winner has already sold 3 yearlings so far this year for an average of $316,666 and a median of $150,000. These prices may be a disappointment to breeders who paid over six figures to breed to him. Smarty Jones is a very plain chestnut horse; he is very well balanced but is not particularly impressive physically. He was bred to a spectacular book of mares during his first year and his median should improve as the sale moves forward.

Pleasantly Perfect (Pleasant Colony): The late developing Breeders’ Cup hero has sold only 2 yearlings so far this year for an average of $219,458. It is usually hard to sell horses by sires in the Pleasant Colony line since some very nice racehorses from that line such as Behrens, St. Joivite etc have failed to produce anything of consequence. He does have the ability to produce big, athletic, good looking yearlings that may find homes with the high end buyers.

Speightstown (Gone West): The speedy son of Gone West was also a late maturing type. The Gone West line has shown to be very versatile as buyers both in the US and Europe have rediscovered horses like Mr. Greeley. He has a lot of pedigree and is a strong, well built chestnut that should appeal to a broad cross section of end users. His median so far has been of $160,000 with 13 sold from 14 offered.

Medaglia d’Oro (El Prado): Has come out swinging at the sales with a median of $155,000. He is an extraordinarily beautiful horse that should be transmitting his great looks to his offspring. The Travers Stakes winner should also be appealing to a large base of buyers and may still offer some value to potential purchasers. He will offer 84 yearlings at Keeneland.

Strong Hope (Grand Slam): He defeated Empire Maker in the Jim Dandy. The good looking son of Grand Slam has a good race record but lacks the pedigree depth of some of his pears. The 9 he has sold have done very well reching a median of $120,000.

Lion Heart (Tale of the Cat): One of the best looking horses in the group, Lion Heart lost the Kentucky Derby to Smarty Jones and finished a game second in that race. He has been one of the most active sires so far in terms of sale presence with 36 offered and 28 sold. His median of $130,000 is probably reflective of what his final numbers will be like at Keeneland. With 95 yearlings to be offered he could have had his own sale.

Perfect Soul (Saddler’s Wells): The well balanced late maturing turf miller has only sold 2 thus far for a median of $129,750. With 33 to sell at Keeneland we will get a better idea soon of just how much demand there is for a pure turf horse this year who may be more attractive to US buyers with the advent of Politrack.

Johar (Gone West): Another pure turf horse but this time from the more fashionable Gone West line will be interesting to follow. The Breeders’ Cup Turf champion has shown that he can get big numbers by selling one for over $300,000. His median of $70,000 is low considering his ability of the racehorse. May offer value for brave buyers who don’t mind a long distance turf horse.

Chapel Royal (Montbrook): Another very good looking horse. He has been the king of the auction ring, at least by number offered so far with 44. Of those he has sold 35 for a median of $50,000 but he has been able to sell for as much as $320,000. With lots of speed and early maturity he may offer the best value among the first year sires with the large number of yearlings still to sell. 56 of his yearlings will go through the ring.

The Keeneland September sale is upon us. Buyers from all over the world will be coming to Lexington to shop at the largest and most prestigious yearling sale in the world. Without a doubt astute horseman will be able to find great deals at this sale.

I would like to make a list of what I consider the best sires by value at this sale.

Sires standing at $100,000 or more:

Awesome Again (Deputy Minister): Hard to believe that his yearling median was only $46,000 with 20 sold last year. The sire of Ghostzapper is probably the best value of the bunch if these numbers hold. An AEI of 2.53 make him a legitimate heavy hitter.

El Prado (Saddlers Wells): Consistent sire gets no respect at the sales with a yearling median of only $65,000. With a 2.17 Average Earning Index, El Prado is a consistent source of class and graded stakes potential.

$50,000 to $99,000

Rahy (Blushing Groom): Last year’s $90,000 yearling median may taper a bit this year. For a proven horse with an AEI of 2.43 that is cheap. His horses do well on Turf and are strong in the politrack. In addition his fillies are becoming hot commodities in the breeding shed.

Smart Strike (Mr. Prospector): An incredible horse with an AEI of 2.70. His offspring get no respect and he has been called the ultimate non commercial sire. With the success of Curlin his average of $73,000 may increase this year. But even at the higher price he will still be a steal. Smart Strike also leads many of the sires of his level in % of runners from foals and in number of starts per foal. Very solid.

$25,000 to $50,000

Arch (Kris S.): A $17,000 median is a joke for this horse with an AEI of 2.06. Buyers who used to overlook his stock because of turf preference may take a second look this year as his foals will be good prospects for politrack.

Cozzene (Caro): Another of the great old turf sires does not deserve the $55,000 median. His progeny have class and he has shown the ability to sire great horses in all surfaces. His 2.41 AEI makes his prospects a must buy.

Successful Appeal (Valid Appeal): Speed and precocity come cheap with this solid up and coming sire. His median of $37,500 for his AEI of 2.27 make him an interesting buy.

Theatrical (Nureyev) still going and another of the old great turf sires on the list. With Rahy and Cozzene he makes up one of the best value groups especially considering the types of mares he is bred to. $63,000 median and a 2.42 AEI.

More than Ready (Southern Halo) Difficult to see why his foals only command a median of just over $57,000 as he produces an AEI of nearly 2. But with 66 foals to be offered at this sale there will be plenty of them that will fall through the cracks.

Under $25,000

Stravinsky (Nureyev) Value seekers have to love the offspring of exported sires. The farm stopped marketing the stallion a long time ago and there is usually a drop in the number of buyers who actually look for the offspring of these horses. Expect the median from last year ($49,000) to drop dramatically this year. Making him a great hidden value.

Mutakddim (Seeking the Gold) Always good value, Mutakddim has always offered early maturing speed. With a median of only $14,000, there is really no down side on purchasing horses by him.

Pleasant Tap (Pleasant Colony) More people are beginning to figure out that there is great value with him. Some of his offspring have brought in some pretty high numbers recently. However, his $16,000 median is still far away from where it should be for this stallion that has shown that he can produce a home run horse.

Cape Canaveral (Mr. Prospector) has shown that his offspring can run. A very low median sale figure of only 5 digits ($9,000) make him a stallion one has to consider if you are looking at the lower end of the market and want something that can run and run early. With a 1.51 AEI the 23 of his offspring being offered at the sale will offer some of the best value.

Sultry Song (Cox’s Ridge) has only two in the sale but this breeder’s cup winner producing sire only had a median of $3,600 last year. His AEI is over 1.47 is not bad at all considering that his offspring can run on anything.