Today we will analyze the group of stallions that stand between $30,000 and $50,000.

Best Values

Lemon Drop Kid (Kingmambo) ($35,000): As consistent as they come, Lemon Drop Kid produces a very high percentage of stake winners from foals of racing age (11.4%). He is the classic type of undervalued sire that posts good numbers year after year yet remains well priced for the quality he offers. I will not be surprised to see his fee increase in the next few years.

Lemon Drop Kid reminds me a lot of horses like Dynaformer or Smart Strike who offered very good value to breeders until they were ‘discovered’ by the high end breeders and commercial buyers. I believe that Lemon Drop Kid is in the cusp of taking a similar jump. Especially for the breeder who breeds to race, there does not seem to be a better value than this horse.

Tapit (Pulpit) ($50,000): Tapit has gotten off to a flying start and has proven he can get both quality and precocity. He has been most successful with his fillies siring the likes of Careless Jewel, Stardom Bound and Tapitsfly. In fact, given that his five highest earners in North America are all fillies it is amazing that Tapit can boasts a 2.88 AEI especially because fillies usually have lower earnings potential than their male counterparts. However, this does not mean that he is purely a filly sire; he already sired Testa Matta in Japan who won the Japan Dirt Derby.

In addition, these numbers were achieved on a low stud fee and Tapit is able to give an incredible boost to his mares (1.51 CI). The best should be yet to come as the quality of mares bred to him increases. I believe that Tapit still has a lot of upside potential even at this price. All that he is missing is to sire a top class colt to break out of his “filly sire” reputation.

Henry the Navigator (Kingmambo) ($40,000): It is hard to remember every having a sire with as much class as Henry the Navigator standing for this low a price. Add to that extreme good looks and perfect balance and you have one of the best values in the market today.

A precocious 2 year-old, Henry the Navigator was a top class miller at age 3, winning both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas, the Sussex Stakes and the St James Place Stakes, all of them at a mile and all of them Group 1. He was named champion 3year old colt in Ireland and finished second to Raven’s Pass in the Breeder’s Cup Classic.

Standing only his second season at stud his yearlings should be attractive to both European and local horsemen. If you would like to take a shot on Henry the Navigator, now is the time to breed to him.

Worst Value:

Stormy Atlantic (Storm Cat) ($35,000): Another horse with a high price tag despite low AEI (1.58), he produces very good horses but it is difficult to get exited about his price tag. He is a better value in the $20,000 level and we expect to see him in that range in the near future.

Best and Worst Values in the Stallion Market for 2010

The year 2009 will go down as one of the worst years for thoroughbred breeders. We have seen major financial market indicators fall to levels not seen in a decade. Virtually every sale worldwide had substantial reductions in average, median and gross. In response to this drop in the market, stallion owners have been quick to reduce fees for their stallions.

The question that remains in most breeders minds is: Have stud fees been reduced enough?

This is not an easy question to answer with so much uncertainty in the bloodstock market. Breeders need to make decisions now about products that will be sold two years from now and there has never been more uncertainty as to where the market will be at that point in time. Therefore, it is more crucial than ever to find value among the sire offerings in order to best protect against potential future downturns.

Stallions Standing for Over $50,000

What does Storm Cat, Gone West, Seeking the Gold, El Prado, Cozzene, Theatrical, Rahy, Red Ransom and Silver Deputy have in common? They are all first rate sires that have been pensioned or lost in the past few years.

The American thoroughbred market is going through an interesting transition currently as some of the old and venerable ‘Book 1’ sires pass the torch to a new generation of sires that will try to step up to take their place. But are they up to the task? Can the new generation justify the high stud fees and maintain the high yearling prices or will the top of the market be reduced to more ‘affordable’ levels?

In the “Over $50,000” Category we will recommend breeding to the proven sires that have showed that they belong in the highest echelon of the thoroughbred world. We will try to avoid the new ‘hot’ of the moment sires that may not have the staying power to maintain the high stud fees.

Our Best Values are:

AP Indy ($150,000): with a 3.14 AEI and whopping 12% stake winners from foals, AP Indy ranks as the best value for breeders with the right mares. No other sire will dominate the thoroughbred market as much as he will in the years to come. Although age and fertility may be a concern, breeders with young quality mares are well advised to take a shot with AP Indy before it is too late. Also, Lane’s End is offering a 10% discount for breeders that pay on November 1 of year bred, a very tempting offer to further the appeal of this sire.

Distorted Humor ($100,000): Another proven horse able to get a very high number of stake winners from foals with 9%. He is a consistent and produces good looking foals able to shine on the racetrack and at the sales ring. Considering he stood for as much as $300,000 not too long ago, the $100,000 is certainly worth the money.

Pulpit ($60,000): Pulpit is already a proven sire of sires with Tapit out to a very strong start. He is an extraordinary looking individual capable of getting a top sale yearling and consistently strong runners. His sales median of $150,000 warrants an investment at this level for the commercial breeder and a strong 7% stake winners from foals is very attractive for those looking for racing performance. At $60,000 he is very well priced.

Worst Values:

Difficult to call any sire in the category a bad value since virtually all of them have showed that they are able to sire stock in the highest categories. However, there are a few that down the road may not prove to be very sound investments at these levels.

Medaglia D’Oro ($100,000) I have nothing against Medaglia D’Oro, in fact I think he is a very capable sire and he has already proven that he can sire top quality stock with three grade 1 winners last year including the great Rachel Alexandra. However, I think that Darley may have been too hasty to raise the fee so high. Perhaps they overpaid for him as a sire when they purchased him last year as the thoroughbred market was sinking but that is no reason to have breeders pay for it.

The fee raise (from $60,000) represents one of the largest fee increases recorded in the market, at a time when most fees were dropping. True Medaglia has been the ‘hot’ sire this year. But what will be of him in two years, long after Rachel Alexandra has been retired, if he fails to produce anything of consequence next year? With only 4% stake winners from foals (5.3% if you take out the current two year-old crop) it is hard to justify the hefty stud fee.

Mr. Greeley ($50,000) has had a good run at the sales ring and the race track as European owners and breeders flocked to purchase his progeny at the sales ring. Even with him producing the likes of Kensei, his 1.46 AEI and meager 4% stake winners from foals make his a very questionable deal even at this level.