Best and Worst Stallions ($20,000 to $49,999) in 2008
December 18th, 2007 by 
Warstone
Today we will discuss stallions standing between $20,000 and $49,999 and we will try to identify which stallions offer the best value and which offer the worst value for breeders.
The group is joined by former star Fusaichi Pegasus, a once thriving Coolmore Sire that los 40% of his value and is standing for $45,000. The group has been pretty steady in terms of their fees and offers some very good value in the form of older proven sires and some well placed younger sires.
Best Values
Exchange Rate ($25,000) A fee increase of 150% should not deter anyone from breeding to this stallion, he is a young proven sire with strong numbers and offers a unique opportunity for breeders at this price range. His AEI of 2.26 is extremely strong. He also produces 8.6% stake winners from foals which is huge for modern standards. His yearling median lags a little but his sales numbers should improve dramatically given the performance of his horses at the track.
Cozzene ($35,000) Has been standing now for a couple of seasons for this low fee. He has an Average Earning Index of 2.39 and produces 8.9% stakes winners from foals both figures are easily the highest for any stallion at this price level, these numbers are even attractive at the $50,000-$99,000 bracket. His yearling median is only $60,000 which still make him a commercially viable prospect but his real value will be for those who breed to race. Hard to find a better value in any price range.
Theatrical ($40,000) Another sire with big numbers that seems to be punished because of his age. He has a 2.43 AEI and 7.9% stakes winners from foals. His median yearling median of $70,000 makes him a contender for the commercial breeder but as with Cozzene it is the breeders who breed to race that will find this offer most attractive.
After Market ($30,000) Very well priced sire offers those who want to take a chance on a first year sire very good value. He is an incredible physical specimen who was effective at middle distances on the grass at every level. He is impeccably bred being out of G1 winner Tranquility Lake by Rahy so he has the same cross as Giant’s Causeway. He retired with 8 wins from 13 starts and his yearling should be well sought after at the sales since he will appeal to both domestic and foreign buyers. In addition, if he passes on just a fraction of his looks, his yearlings have the potential of selling well into the six figures.
Worst Values
Aptitude ($20,000) Has not been performing well and this fee just seems too high for a sire with his numbers. He only has a 1.34 AEI and produces a pathetically low 1.8% stakes winners from foals. From a commercial standpoint his $25,500 yearling median does not warrant anything close to his fee.
Sky Messa ($30,000) Danger signs of a major flop are flashing. Sky Messa had a disastrous year with his two-year old runners and although I like to give stallions a couple of crops before judging, his numbers are just too bleak to warrant any breeder taking the plunge at this fee level. AEI of only 0.57, a pitiful 9% winners from foals and no stake winners to speak of make him a really bad gamble at this stage. If you like him, wait a year or two to get a better view of his ability and his fee is almost certain to fall.
Posted in Bloodstock | 
4 Comments »
December 18th, 2007 at 7:39 pm
you missed Lemon Drop Kid…what a bargain at 35K
December 19th, 2007 at 2:03 pm
Michael:
You are absolutely right that Lemmon Drop Kid ($35,000) is a great investment at this price. His Yearling Median of $80,000 is a great reward for the commercial breeder and his sales numbers will only increase given the recent performance of some of his top runners. On the other hand when evaluating stallions for this Article we noticed that his AEI of 1.85 and Stake winner percentage of 7.1% was just a shade lower than the numbers for the sires we selected but again it was a marginal decision and we would recommend Lemon Drop Kid to any breeder.
December 19th, 2007 at 4:03 pm
Hey Jose,
As I am sure you know in the breeding/training community there is a lot speculation around Exchange Rate’s offspring’s durability.
He surely is producing quality offspring which can speak for themselves in the ring and surely on the track. Great value as mentioned.
However I’ve been witness to much information around their passed on confirmation concerns. Specifically with fragility in bone structure.
Unfortunately there isn’t a published report of his offspring’s breakdowns for the public to consume. I’m sure with a little leg work we could dig it up.
What’s your thoughts? Have you heard similar rumblings?
December 20th, 2007 at 11:35 am
Jeff, I have not heard specifics on the Exchange Rates but I would be most interested to know if you hear anything about them. However, I do have some numbers I have looked at that may be useful in evaluating his durability.
First, as a racehorse he seems to have done Ok in terms of durability racing three seasons and starting twice as a two year-old and six times each as a three and four year-old for a total of 15 starts.
Second, in terms of his progeny, the average number of starts per runner is 7. This number is definitely on the low end but I tend to give younger stallions like him a little bit of break since their two year-olds that are lightly raced would affect the number much more than it would the more mature stallions with multiple crops. However, his number of average starts is at par with El Corredor, Orientate, Point Given, Yonaguska and Fusaichi Pegasus and above horses like Tiznow and Officer. So although these numbers are not impressive in terms of durability (see El Prado with 20 average starts per runner, Dynaformer 18, Rahy 17 etc.) they are more or less in line with some of his peers.
Third, there is also another way to evaluate indirectly how sound the progeny of a stallion are and that is through the interplay of the Average Earning Index and the Sire Index (SI) both measures will compare earnings versus a breed average but the Average Earning Index measures yearling earnings and the Sire Index measures earnings per start. Therefore, you would expect a very sound sire whose progeny race often to have a better AEI than an SI index whereas a sire of very brilliant but unsound horses to have a higher SI than an AEI.
For example, let’s say our breed average per start is $1,000 and our yearly earning breed average is $10,000 a year. Sire A has decent runners that earn $1,000 per start and start 10 times a year. Sire B has very good runners that earn $5,000 per start but start only two times a year. Both these horses will have an AEI of 1.00 but Sire A will have a SI of 5.00 whereas sire A will have an SI of 1.00.
From the example we can see that Sire B a sire of unsound brilliant horses has a higher Si than AEI.
In the case of Exchange Rate, his AEI is 2.26 with an SI of 2.09 which would not tend to indicate any special unsoundness of his foals.