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Warstone Farm

Can the Filly Eight Bells Win the Derby?

April 29th, 2008 by Warstone

Owner Rick Porter raised more than a few eyebrows when he announced that Eight Bells, a probable favorite for the Kentucky Oaks, may actually run in the Derby. The outrage surrounding the decision had nothing to do with running a filly in the premier horse race in America but rather on the concern that Eight Bells would be entered only to end up running in the Oaks.

Under current rules, only 20 horses can be entered for the Derby. However, nothing prohibits an owner from entering a filly in both the Derby and the Oaks. The problem is that if the filly ends up running in the Oaks, she will have denied another legitimate contender a place in the Derby.

Rick Porter has been unapologetic about his decision stating that in his view there is nothing “illegal or unsportsmanlike” about entering the filly in both races; he notes that “this is a business and not just a sport.” His decision will be controversial only if Eight Bells draws a bad post position for the Derby and scratches.

What will not be controversial is the ability of this filly to compete with the best colts of her generation. Her top Beyer speed figure, a 99, makes her on paper a strong contender. It is also very positive that she has already shown a liking for the dirt and with nine lifetime starts, four of those in the current year, Eight Bells is already a very experienced performer.

One issue against may be that only three fillies have ever managed to win the Derby. Regret in 1915, Genuine Risk in 1980 and Winning Colors in 1988. However, only 38 fillies have ever raced in the Derby, the latest being Excellent Meeting who finished fifth and Three Ring who finished 19th in 1999.

Three out of 38 is not a bad statistic for the Derby. Fillies are winning at a healthy rate of 8%; which means that according to the numbers; theoretically, a filly has a better chance of winning the race than a horse trained by Todd Pletcher who is 0 for 19!

In conclusion, Eight Bells is a strong contender especially considering all the question marks surrounding much of the field and as Rags to Riches proved last year, the girls can beat the boys even at the top of the sport.

Posted in Bloodstock |

4 Responses

  1. Nick Says:

    By that measure, fillies also have a better chance to win than colts. I’m sure (colts who have won) / (total colts entered) works out to be much less than 8%.

    It’s a simplified way of looking at things, but it’s also reminder not to discount a filly in the derby!

  2. Mary Says:

    Heart of gold. My heart is broken at her passing.

  3. Malinda Says:

    I am so sorry, so sad. She did great today. She proved she can run with the guys. I am just so sad for all of her family and those who loved her.

  4. betty almand Says:

    I hope that a through investication will be done on the tragedy that occured when eight bells broke both of her ankles after the race was over.
    Something smells fishy to me.

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