Its sale season again! It has been a very unpredictable year that has so far shown mixed results for yearling sales. For example, at the FT Saratoga Select the market was up slightly but FT KY JUL saw the market decline substantially (over 10%).

The high volatility that has been present in past sales probably means that there will be plenty of bargains to be had in the upcoming king of sales: The Keeneland September Yearling Sale. This will be especially true of the middle market.

We anticipate the top of the market to be healthy, although buyers will be much more selective in determining what constitutes the top. This will open up the access to very good pedigrees for buyers in the high-middle level. These types of buyers should be doing their homework in books one and two so that when the opportunity presents itself they can take advantage of it.

I also anticipate the middle market to show a reasonable but not drastic correction when compared to last year; this is based on the fact that pinhookers did reasonably well and will come back with money to invest. In addition, the new tax rules will also allow buyers to reach a little deeper into their pockets for the prospects that they like.

In addition, there will be a great deal of volatility within that middle group, as purchasers that depend on the stock market and/or receive bonus based compensation tighten their spending due to uncertainty in the market place.

Smart buyers should be patient and look for bargains that will be more readily available than in the past.

We will now examine the profiles of some stallions that may offer value for yearling buyers at this sale:

High End Sires:

Pulpit (AP Indy): This guy does well at the racetrack, his average of $100,000 is very low for the bang that he can deliver (AEI 2.12). With some of his sons retiring to stud, this beautiful looking stallion is a prime candidate to skyrocket in price in the near future.

Rahy (Blushing Groom): Perennially undervalued. His average of $66,000 is less than half of his current stud fee. He has an AEI of 2.41. He has 15 selling and everyone of them should be worth a look for bargain hunters.

Silver Deputy (Deputy Minister): is AEI is a strong 2.00 but his average of only $62,500 is very low. Pinhookers take note that his average for 2yo is $190,000. A healthy difference for those wanting to make a quick profit.

Cozene (Caro): Another of the great turf sires he can give you a 2.35 AEI with a very cheap $60,000 average. Probably the best value among the old-timers.

Theatrical (Nureyev): Like Rahy he boasts a 2.40 AEI but his sale figure of $70,000 is very low. For the turf enthusiast this stallion can deliver very high quality for a very good price.

The rest:

Arch (Kris S.): Has come a long way but we believe that he still has plenty of upside even at the $50,000 he average last year. He has been able to get an AEI of 1.95 but the yearlings he is selling today are out of much better mares.

City Zip (Carson City): moved from New York to Kentucky after showing plenty of potential. His $16,073 average will certainly rise but probably not enough to erase the value that he offers (1.81 AEI)

Dehere (Deputy Minister): Just getting back State side will offer his 28 yearlings since getting back. Many may have forgotten how good he is. (AEI 1.81)

Exchange Rate (Danzig): How much does this guy have to do to be appreciated? With an AEI of 1.98 and an average last year of $23,000 he is an absolute steal.

Macho Uno (Holy Bull): Is quickly demonstrating that he belongs in the upper echelon with an AEI of 2.38 and an average of only $20,000 he is probably the best value of the bunch.

Pleasant Tap (Pleasant Colony): They don’t come more consistent than this guy with an average of just $30,000 he always delivers (AEI 1.94).

Point Given (Thunder Gulch): He got a bad reputation with his first two year-olds and was labeled a flop. The two-year olds went on to run big but the label stuck and now his average is just $22,000 but his AEI is an incredible 2.16!

Proud Citizen (Gone West): will probably go up in value due to his recent success at the racetrack but at $35,000 he will still be buyable.

Victory Gallop (Cryptoclearance): Remember him? Easy to forget but as consistent as they come with an average of $10,000 he will surely be one of the best buys out there.

But the very best value you will find in the sale is:

Bad Nicks for Young (but not freshman) Stallions: Nicks are quickly becoming the end all be all for Breeders. Agents may be afraid to purchase a ‘bad’ nick for a client and be branded as someone who does not know what they are doing. However, regardless of whether you ‘believe’ in them of not (and I certainly don’t) most people will agree that the Nicks awarded to young stallions based on what their sires have done are worthless. So take out your guides and look for those Ds and Fs on nicks for young stallions (I would do it for every stallion) odds are that the misguided rating will scare some prospective purchasers giving plenty of value.